UFC Fight Night Perth 2025: Ulberg vs Reyes Breakdown, Betting Lines & Warrior Spirit

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Win Probabilities – UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes

Perth, Australia – September 27, 2025

Carlos Ulberg is favored over Dominick Reyes with an estimated win probability of 62% to 38%

Ibo Aslan is favored over Junior Tafa with an estimated win probability of 59% to 41%

Jack Jenkins is favored over Ramon Taveras with an estimated win probability of 75% to 25%

Jimmy Crute is favored over Ivan Erslan with an estimated win probability of 70% to 30%

Jake Matthews is favored over Neil Magny with an estimated win probability of 82% to 18%

Tom Nolan holds a slight edge over Charlie Campbell with an estimated win probability of 54% to 46%

Justin Tafa is favored over Louie Sutherland with an estimated win probability of 58% to 42%

Navajo Stirling is favored over Rodolfo Bellato with an estimated win probability of 65% to 35%

Alexia Thainara is favored over Loma Lookboonmee with an estimated win probability of 63% to 37%

Oban Elliott is favored over Jonathan Micallef with an estimated win probability of 55% to 45%

Andre Petroski is favored over Cameron Rowston with an estimated win probability of 60% to 40%

Rolando Bedoya holds a slight edge over Jamie Mullarkey with an estimated win probability of 52% to 48%

Michelle Montague is favored over Luana Carolina with an estimated win probability of 61% to 39%

Scroll down for full breakdowns of every fight on the card.

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes

The New Guard vs the Ghost of the Title

Carlos Ulberg arrives in Perth as the embodiment of modern discipline precise, powerful, and on the rise. His five fight win streak isn’t just a stat line; it’s a calculated climb built on method and momentum.

Dominick Reyes, on the other hand, is the warrior who came inches from glory against Jon Jones, only to fall into the void. Now, with a new team and renewed clarity, he’s chasing redemption. The odds may not be in his favor, but his spirit has never been sharper.

Junior Tafa vs Ibo Aslan

Australian Power vs Balkan Precision

Junior Tafa steps into the Octagon on home turf, backed by the roar of the Perth crowd and the raw power that’s made him a feared name in the division. But across from him stands Ibo Aslan a calculated technician, sharp in movement and lethal when it counts.

With a 59% win probability in Aslan’s favor, the numbers reflect his broader technical arsenal. Still, Tafa’s proven time and again that it only takes one clean shot to flip the script.

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Jack Jenkins vs Ramon Taveras

Pace Control vs Pure Chaos

Jack Jenkins stands out as one of Australia’s most well-rounded fighters. His grappling dominance and ability to dictate tempo make him a puzzle few can solve. Across the cage, Ramon Taveras brings unpredictability and hunger traits that don’t show up on stat sheets but hit hard when the moment comes.

With Jenkins holding a 75% win probability, the numbers back his technical edge. Still, Taveras fights with a fire that stats can’t measure and that makes him dangerous.

Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan

Veteran Grit vs European Ambition

Jimmy Crute has already felt the spotlight of the UFC his journey marked by highs and lows that have forged a tougher, smarter fighter. Ivan Erslan enters with less Octagon experience but a strong résumé from the European circuit and a reputation for staying composed under pressure.

Crute’s 70% win probability reflects his comfort on the big stage, but if this fight goes deep, Erslan’s endurance and tactical patience could turn heads.

Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny

Passing the Torch in the Welterweight Division

Jake Matthews is the new face of the division young, sharp, and riding a wave of momentum. Neil Magny, meanwhile, stands as a symbol of a generation that gave everything to the sport. The odds are brutal: 82% in favor of Matthews, just 18% for Magny. But the veteran has flipped predictions before.

This fight isn’t just a matchup it’s a statement about where the welterweight division is headed.

Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell

Unstable Balance Between Complementary Styles

Tom Nolan brings fluidity and finesse to the striking game, while Charlie Campbell fights with raw power and direct aggression. The odds are nearly even, with a slight edge to Nolan but this is the kind of matchup where the smallest detail makes all the difference.

A clean transition, a perfectly timed shot, or a single mistake avoided could be the moment that defines the fight.

Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland

The Power of a Single Shot in a KO-Ready Match

Justin Tafa is known for his devastating knockout power every second in the cage with him is a gamble. Louie Sutherland, more mobile and technically refined, will need to avoid trading heavy shots early. Tafa’s 58% win probability reflects the danger he brings from the opening bell.

But if the fight stretches beyond Round 1, the momentum could shift. In matchups like this, survival isn’t just strategy it’s the path to victory.

Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato

Wrestling as Art and Strategy

Navajo Stirling is a pure wrestler relentless in control, suffocating in pace. His ability to grind down opponents and dictate every phase of the fight makes him a tactical nightmare. Rodolfo Bellato brings more variety on the feet, with sharp striking and explosive bursts, but his ground game lacks the same foundation.

Stirling’s 65% win probability is a bet on his rhythm, his pressure, and his ability to neutralize the Brazilian’s flair before it ever finds space to breathe.

Alexia Thainara vs Loma Lookboonmee

Two Philosophies of Women’s Combat Collide

Alexia Thainara fights with aggression and directness, grounded in a confident jiu jitsu base that gives her control on the mat. Loma Lookboonmee, by contrast, is a Muay Thai specialist precise, patient, and dangerous in the clinch.

Thainara holds a 63% win probability, a nod to her grappling advantage. But if this fight stays standing, Loma’s striking mastery could flip the script in a heartbeat.

Oban Elliott vs Jonathan Micallef

Relentless Pressure vs Calculated Defense

Oban Elliott is known for his nonstop pace always moving forward, always forcing the action. Jonathan Micallef, by contrast, thrives on patience and timing, waiting for the perfect moment to strike.

Elliott’s 55% win probability reflects his ability to smother opponents and control the tempo. But Micallef has proven he can weather the storm and land when it matters most. This one could come down to who breaks rhythm first.

Andre Petroski vs Cameron Rowston

Wrestling as the Foundation, Striking as the Wild Card

Andre Petroski brings dominant wrestling to the cage a style built to control, grind, and dictate pace. Cameron Rowston counters with cleaner, more refined striking, relying on distance and timing to stay out of the clinch.

Petroski’s 60% win probability is a bet on his ability to drag the fight to the mat and keep it there. But if Rowston can manage range and keep the fight upright, the dynamic shifts and so does the danger.

Rolando Bedoya vs Jamie Mullarkey

The Most Even Matchup of the Night

Rolando Bedoya holds a slight edge in the odds, but Jamie Mullarkey will be fighting in front of a home crowd and he’s proven time and again that he can handle the pressure. That 52% win probability for Bedoya feels almost symbolic. This is a razor thin contest, where every second could be decisive.

A shift in momentum, a well timed counter, or a surge of energy from the crowd this fight will be won in the smallest of margins.

Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina

New Zealand’s Rising Star vs Brazil’s Battle-Tested Veteran

Michelle Montague is one of the most promising athletes in the women’s division hungry, evolving, and grounded in a grappling game that’s earned her respect across promotions. Luana Carolina brings more experience to the cage, but her performances have lacked the sharp edge Montague now carries.

With a 61% win probability in Montague’s favor, the odds reflect growing confidence in her trajectory. This isn’t just another fight it could be the spark that ignites a brilliant new career.

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